Israel blamed the Gaza famine, which never happened

Professors Awi Federgruen and Ran Kivetz of Columbia University analyzed the available data and conducted research whose “findings demonstrate that sufficient amounts of food are being provided in Gaza,” they noted in a summary of their findings presented to The Jerusalem Post.

They note that it is “a myth that Israel is responsible for the famine in Gaza.” They claim that the International Criminal Court and the UN have joined Hamas in accusing Israel of a “famine that never was, in hopes of stopping the war (in Gaza).

The two teachers talked to Post in early June and provided a summary and details of their findings on the hunger issue in Gaza.

Professor Awi Federgruen is the Chair of the Decision, Risk and Operations Division at Columbia University. He is an expert in supply chains, logistics and data science. Ran Kivetz is the Philip H. Geier Professor at Columbia University Business School. He is an expert in decision making, including the intersection of behavioral economics and political science.

The two experts noted that the ICC has sought arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The ICC alleged that Israel is “causing starvation as a method of warfare, including denying humanitarian aid supplies (and) deliberately targeting civilians in conflict,” they note in their brief. The two teachers dispute this.

They examined “hard data, available from sources such as COGAT and the UN,” they note. Federgruen and Kivetz’s research and findings demonstrate that sufficient quantities of food are provided in Gaza. According to their research, they “demonstrate that 250 trucks are sufficient to feed the entire population of Gaza on a normal North American diet.”

Hamas fired rockets at the Kerem Shalom crossing on May 5, killing five soldiers and causing the border to be briefly closed. However, deliveries have since resumed. “Israel intends to further increase to the level of 400-500 trucks/day. In addition, Israel regularly halts offensives for 4 hours a day to facilitate these deliveries,” they note.

“However, food is not consistently distributed inside Gaza,” they add. The teachers point to reports suggesting that the fact that food is not being distributed in Gaza is due to sabotage and theft by Hamas.

They argue that “the ICC, the UN and the international community should place blame only where it belongs: Hamas, which started the war by slaughtering over 1,000 Israeli and foreign civilians and taking over 200 still-unreleased hostages and many killed in captivity. But unfortunately, the UN, the ICC and even some Western governments consistently ignore the data.”

Experts also claim that mainstream media organizations have misrepresented information from Gaza, and this has led to Israel being blamed for the alleged famine.

“In fact, the mainstream media continues to vacillate between (false) accusations that Israel is causing famine, committing genocide, and sabotaging Hamas hostage deals. Such a defamatory narrative is meant to end the Israel-Hamas war at all costs, including a victory for Hamas, a bleak future for the people of Gaza and Israel, and endless cruel captivity for the hostages and their families. The false famine narrative has also been exploited by the ICC, ICJ and the UN to support their unjustified judgments and actions against Israel,” they argue.

Federgruen and Kivetz also note that some of the claims about the famine in Gaza can be traced back to problematic reports.

For example, “in March 2024, an organization called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a component of the UN, issued a report predicting a major famine in Gaza, allegedly caused by Israel. The CPI report has taken on a life of its own. For example, he was cited by OXFAM, which accused Israel of “making deliberate choices to starve civilians” and claimed (without any justification) that a group of residents in northern Gaza subsisted on just 245 calories a day.” they note.

Experts say they have been watching the data closely since the start of the war. “We do this professionally. We don’t rely on stories. Hard data on food supply is not hard to come by. Our analysis is based on data from COGAT as well as reports and data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report.

This data paints a starkly different picture than the ICC and UN are trying to paint, and directly refutes baseless claims that Israel is causing famine or using famine as a method of war.” COGAT is the IDF’s coordination unit that is responsible for managing aid entering Gaza. It also publishes information on the amount of aid received.

Aid entering Gaza goes through Israel, especially after Egypt closed the Rafah crossing on May 8. “The first part of that food supply chain is in the hands of Israel, because Israel is the major force that controls what goes into Gaza. Once the food enters Gaza, however, the supply chain is no longer under Israel’s control, as the food is taken over by NGOs, the UN and Hamas interventions,” the academics note.

“We found that the food supply coming into Gaza is more than enough to feed all 2.2 million Gazans on what is considered a normal diet in North America. This is because if only 250 trucks enter Gaza each day (in reality there are more), and assuming food is distributed adequately, each Gazan would receive the amount of food an average person consumes in North america. This is in addition to the food that Gazans continue to produce themselves.”

They note that their calculation is based on each truck carrying 20 tons of food. This means 250 trucks are delivering five million kilograms, about 2.25 kilograms per person in Gaza. “This is almost identical to the 2.36 kg of food per day that the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimates the average individual in North America consumes.”

The professors note that “our findings were recently independently corroborated by a working paper written by researchers from Tel Aviv University, the Hebrew University, the University of Haifa, Ben Gurion University, Shaare Zedek, and Israel’s Ministry of Health. The conclusion of this paper is that each gazan was supplied with 3,374 Kcal per day, while only 2,100 Kcal are needed.”

While enough aid is coming into Gaza, they note that it may not always be distributed to the people due to other factors such as the war and Hamas control. “We can say with a high degree of professional confidence that if there was a famine somewhere in Gaza, it was not instigated by Israel. On the contrary, Israel is engaged in a variety of efforts to ensure that sufficient food enters Gaza through land crossings,” they state.

The teachers’ examination of the data joins a growing body of evidence that refutes claims of famine in Gaza. However, the chaos of the war in Gaza and other factors mean that Israel will continue to be blamed for what happens in Gaza, even though Israel is not to blame for the failed food distribution.

Not only does Hamas appear to be hijacking aid trucks, but it also benefits from the claims of famine, as Hamas can then try to use these claims to pressure Israel to stop the fighting.